Stock market, real estate: Surfing investors are leaving

The past two years, affected by the COVID-19 epidemic, made investment channels such as savings and production less attractive. Idle money is constantly being "poured" into real estate and securities by investors. This is also the reason why these two markets are constantly growing hot.

The past two years, affected by the COVID-19 epidemic, made investment channels such as savings and production less attractive. Idle money is constantly being "poured" into real estate and securities by investors. This is also the reason why these two markets are constantly growing hot. However, from the beginning of April until now, there are many signs that investors are quietly leaving these two markets.

 

Securities: Speculative cash flow "withdraws"

The stock market at this time last year received millions of new accounts, tens of thousands of billions of dong from banks were poured into securities, and investors were excited to dive into stocks. However, the fun has come to an end. Up to this point, VN-Index has entered the 5th consecutive week of decline, the liquidity dropped to a 1-year low, raising concerns: Speculative cash flow that has suffered a lot of damage recently has withdrawn from the market. .

According to statistics, by the end of April 2022, individual investors net sold more than 4,000 billion VND of securities on HoSE, in which, selling was the strongest in the week from April 18 to 22, the time VN-Index. "falling" sharply. Rarely do investors have to bear so many worries at the same time, from domestic to international: inflationary pressure, rising interest rates, tightening corporate bonds, controlling speculation, limiting real estate credit. assets, the US Federal Reserve (FED) tightened monetary policy... Capital demand for production and business activities is also creating competition with the securities investment channel.

Sharing on forums, most retail and individual investors "wail" when the account, if it doesn't cut losses quickly, can lose 30 to 40% of the total account value. SGI Investment Fund Management Joint Stock Company (SGI Capital) said that the tightening of the corporate bond market and the restriction of real estate credit created many short-term disturbances on the capital market.

Real estate: High price, reduced liquidity

From the end of 2021 until now, real estate prices have continued to increase, some localities have a virtual land fever situation, the selling price has been "blown" up dizzy. This makes the real estate market fall into a position where people with real needs cannot buy, sellers listen and offer high prices, so it is difficult to sell.

According to the report of the Ministry of Construction, in the first quarter of 2022, the average real estate transaction price of the whole market is always in an uptrend. Survey data on price fluctuations in some types of real estate in 8 localities including: Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City, Da Nang, Hai Phong, Binh Duong, Dong Nai, Khanh Hoa, Ba Ria - Vung Tau shows that real estate prices in these localities are on a steady upward trend. In particular, the transaction price in March increased quite high compared to February.

Specifically, in Hanoi, apartment prices increased by 1.5%, individual houses by 2.2%, land for housing construction by 2.8%. In Ho Chi Minh City, apartment prices increased by 2.4%, detached houses and land plots were also 2% and 3.6% more expensive, respectively. Real estate prices are constantly increasing in localities, but it is worth mentioning that, in the first quarter of 2022, the whole market only recorded 1,247 apartments sold, down 78% compared to the previous quarter and 53% compared to the previous quarter. same period in 2021. This is the clearest evidence for the low liquidity of the current real estate market.

Mr. Nguyen Quoc Anh, Deputy General Director of Batdongsan.com.vn said: "Although real estate prices increase, liquidity is not proportional".

And Mr. Nguyen Van Dinh, Vice Chairman of the Vietnam Real Estate Association, said that the actual transaction is at a low level, limited by the price being pushed too high, the house and land prices do not reflect the true value. “Investors and buyers also calculate to what extent the fair value. Therefore, people with real needs will not buy products that are overpriced, leading to poor absorption," Dinh said.

From a business perspective, a leader of a real estate business shared, currently, surfing investors have declined sharply when the pandemic broke out and withdrew from the market in the past 3 months. The reason is that the liquidity of the asset shows signs of being low, because the time to buy and sell is longer and longer than before, this group of investors who buy quickly and sell quickly has no more waves to surf.

“After a two-year strong screening of COVID-19, in 2022, real estate prices increased sharply throughout the first quarter, causing market liquidity to be challenged, the number of investors surfing almost disappeared. The opportunity to take profits in short-term real estate like a surfer has almost been eliminated, making way for long-term asset investment, "he said.

Stocks, real estate still have opportunities?

With a long-term perspective from now to the end of 2022, Mr. Ho Quoc Tuan (senior lecturer, University of Bristol, UK) is optimistic that this is a good time to invest and many stocks are having a good valuation. considered reasonable, as well as foreign investors are still strong net buying in the past month.

And Mr. Nguyen Van Dinh said: Although the supply is scarce, but due to brokerage and speculation pushing the price up too high, there will be no buyers. Those who have real housing needs are looking for areas with reasonable prices, reputable investors and projects that meet the criteria of price and legality are really interested.

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