Developing scenarios for the risk of power shortage in Vietnam

According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, in order to ensure electricity supply in the 2021-2025 period, it is necessary to ensure the progress of power sources, develop renewable energy sources, increase electricity imports and accelerate the progress of the LNG plant.

Operating transmission grid at 500kV Dak Nong substation. (Photo: Ngoc Ha/VNA)

The recent heat wave in the North led to an increase in electricity demand, causing the electricity system to set a new record in consumption.

Data from the Electricity of Vietnam (EVN) shows that the national electricity consumption capacity jumped to a new peak of 41,558 MW on June 2, 2021, 3,200 MW higher than the peak in 2020.

With the current standby capacity, it is likely that by 2025, Vietnam will likely fall into a power shortage.

 

Is the backup enough?

A report from the Ministry of Industry and Trade shows that by the end of 2020, Vietnam's electricity system has a total installed capacity of about 69,000 MW; in which, coal-fired and hydroelectric power each account for about 30% of the total capacity, solar power accounts for about 24%, gas turbines and oil-fired power accounts for about 13%, wind power-biomass and imports about 1%. .

In 2020, the maximum load capacity of the power system is about 38,700 MW, the backup rate is 79% if wind and solar power are included and 34% if these power sources are not taken into account. Thus, in 2021, the ability to supply electricity is still guaranteed with a relatively high reserve ratio.

Explaining the draft Power Plan VIII, the Ministry of Industry and Trade also said that if renewable energy sources are considered, the national and regional capacity reserve ratio is relatively stable; in which the North is 13%, the Central is 291% and the South is 36%.

However, if renewable energy sources are not considered, the northern and southern power systems will lack backup capacity.

In fact, the consumption capacity reached a new peak of 41,558 MW on June 2, 2021, which occurred from evening to midnight and mainly consumed electricity in daily life. With an installed capacity of about 69,000MW; of which there is about 17,000MW of solar power, in the evening, when there is no solar power storage battery, the country's power capacity decreases sharply, to only about 52,000MW.

Mr. Nguyen Van Vy, an energy expert, said that this is also the time when the water in hydroelectric reservoirs is low, and the heat makes the efficiency of coal-fired power plants worse than usual, so the available capacity of coal-fired power plants. the whole system will be lower than 52,000 MW.

With redundancy close to peak power consumption in the evening, power cuts, or grid overload, are inevitable.

According to the explanation from the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the national capacity reserve rate by 2025, excluding renewable energy is only about 18%, making it difficult to arrange maintenance and repair schedules for power plants, especially power plants. especially at the time of maximum load in the evening and in the dry season.

Specifically, the reserve ratio of the Southern power system will decrease sharply from 2023 and there will not be enough electricity in 2025. The risk of power shortage is higher in the dry season, or the time when gas supply, repair and maintenance will be stopped. electric machines in the southern region.

In the North, the provision rate in 2025 is only 10%. Thus, in the period of 2023-2025, the North has almost no spare capacity and must receive support from the Central during the peak dry season or in case of repair and maintenance of power plants.

According to EVN's updated report on the balance of electricity supply and demand in the 2021-2025 period, in the event that power sources are behind schedule, renewable energy sources stop being deployed after October 2021, the system will experience a shortage of power sources. big bow. The shortfall could reach 27.7 billion kWh of electricity by 2025.

 

Many projects are behind schedule

According to the revised Power Plan VII, the total capacity of power sources including those officially added to the master plan is nearly 104,000 MW.

During the 2016-2020 period, solar energy sources develop hotly, reaching 132% of the total power capacity that needs to be put into operation during this period. However, traditional power sources such as coal, gas, and hydroelectricity - mainly coal-fired power plants - continue to tend to lag behind as in previous periods. The volume of construction of this power source only reached about 60% of the plan.

substation equipment. (Photo: Ngoc Ha/VNA)

The main behind schedule power sources in the years 2019-2020, occur in both the North and the South, with a total capacity of more than 7,000 MW compared to the scale in the adjusted Power Master Plan VII.

Specifically, the Ministry of Industry and Trade said, there are 10 major power projects expected to be put into operation in the 2016-2020 period but behind schedule, including Song Hau 1, Thai Binh 2, Long Phu 1, Na Duong 2, Cam Pha 3, Cong Thanh, O Mon III... Meanwhile, renewable energy sources, mainly solar, are deployed beyond the planning level, leading to difficulties in balancing electricity supply.

Mr. Nguyen The Thang, representative of the Institute of Energy, said that power projects outside of EVN are mostly behind schedule, greatly affecting the balance of supply and demand and the security of electricity supply. In the 2016-2020 period, only 15,500 MW of the total 21,650 MW is reached, reaching nearly 72%.

According to the scenarios of the draft Power Master Plan VIII being consulted and revised by the Ministry of Industry and Trade, it can be seen that the crude reserve ratio if including wind power and solar power is always high from about 60%, but wind and solar power sources are variable renewable energy sources, contributing very little to the backup of the power system, especially at the time of maximum evening load when there is no sun.

At the moment, the national crude reserve ratio of power supply will only reach 21% in 2020, from 11-14% in 2030 and from 5-8% in 2045 depending on the load scenario.

According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, there may be cases of cumulative risks, including electricity load developing under the high scenario, block B gas source (capacity of 3,800 MW) behind schedule and only starting operation from 5 years. 2027, the Blue Whale gas source (3,750 MW) will start operating in 2031, another 5 years behind the balance in the high scenario.

About 2,500 MW of coal-fired power sources will be delayed after 2030 due to difficulties in mobilizing capital to build coal-fired power plants such as Pha Lai 3, Cong Thanh, and Quang Trach II.

With this cumulative risk scenario, it will be necessary to put more wind, solar and other power sources into operation to meet the power demand and build more DC lines from the area. from the South Central region to the North to transmit the capacity of power plants.

According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, to confirm the redundant or insufficient spare capacity, it is necessary to calculate the expected number of hours that do not meet the load demand.

In order to ensure electricity supply in the 2021-2025 period, it is necessary to consider solutions such as ensuring the progress of power sources, having a mechanism to promote the development of renewable energy sources, and continuing to increase electricity imports from China. , Laos and speed up the progress of liquefied natural gas (LNG) power plants./.

 

According to Duc Dung  (TTXVN/Vietnam+)

Link gốc: https://www.vietnamplus.vn/xay-dung-cac-kich-ban-truoc-nguy-co-thieu-dien-o-viet-nam/720555.vnp

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