Facing the situation of high world oil prices despite OPEC+'s plan to increase output, many businesses forecast that the domestic retail price of gasoline will continue to increase in the coming period.
According to Trading Economics data, on June 6, the global standard Brent oil price at one point crossed the threshold of 121 USD/barrel, then adjusted slightly to 120.47 USD/barrel, up 0.76 USD/barrel, equivalent equivalent to 0.63% compared to the previous day.
And the price of WTI oil - produced at US refineries - sometimes approached the threshold of 121 USD/barrel. WTI oil currently trades around 119.5 USD/barrel.
From the beginning of 2022 until now, the domestic gasoline price has been adjusted up 11 times, making the price of RON 95 gasoline increase by VND 7,694/liter; E5 RON 92 gasoline price increased by 7,071 VND/liter to 30,230 VND/liter, the highest level in history.
Data from the Ministry of Industry and Trade shows that the average price of finished gasoline on the Singapore market updated to June 6 increased by 2-3 USD/barrel compared to 1/6 at 147.7 USD/barrel for RON gasoline. 92, RON 95 gasoline is 153.2 USD/barrel. Notably, diesel oil on June 6 spiked to 170.6 USD/barrel.
Meanwhile, the average price of petroleum products in the world in the middle of the previous operating period was 144 USD/barrel of RON 92 gasoline; $151.9/barrel of RON 95 gasoline and $146,963/barrel of diesel...
The leader of a leading business in Ho Chi Minh City said that in the last 2 days, the world oil price fluctuated strongly. The price of imported gasoline including transportation costs until June 6 is at $157.41/barrel for RON 95 gasoline and 150.5 for E5 RON 92 gasoline.
With this price, it is predicted that the domestic price of gasoline may continue to increase by about 500-900 VND/liter, diesel oil will increase by more than 2,000 VND/liter. From now to June 13, if crude oil prices continue to increase, domestic gasoline prices will not stop at this increase.
Similarly, talking to Zing, a leader of Saigon Fuel Company (SFC) admitted that the world crude oil price has been increasing continuously in recent days, averaging about 1-1.5 USD/barrel/day. .
"Therefore, diesel oil in the next period is forecasted to increase sharply by about 2,000 VND/liter and gasoline by about 800-1,000 VND/liter", this person said.
According to the leader of SFC, currently, the discount rate of petrol and oil agents is almost zero when the world oil price continues to fluctuate strongly. "Currently, the only way to cool down the price of this item is to continue to reduce the tax on gasoline. In large countries, they have national petroleum reserves to stabilize when prices are high, while Vietnam only has reserves at key enterprises", the leader of this business admitted.
Currently, the world crude oil price is under increasing pressure because the world's largest oil exporter - Saudi Arabia has raised the selling price and world demand has still recovered strongly.
Specifically, on June 5, state-owned oil producer Aramco announced that Saudi Arabia had raised the official selling price (OSP) in July of the leading Arab light oil to Asia to a new high, higher than 6 $0.5 compared to the reference prices of Oman and Dubai oil, up from $4.4 in June.
According to Matt Smith, an oil analyst at Kpler, oil prices will remain above the $100/barrel threshold. "If demand in China rebounds strongly and Russia's oil production continues to decline, it is possible for oil to return to highs of 139 USD / barrel," Mr. Smith commented.
WTI and Brent crude oil prices continue to increase, putting pressure on gasoline prices to increase in the coming period. Photo: Pham Thang.
Nguyen Quoc Viet, Deputy Director of the Institute for Economic and Policy Research (VEPR), said that the world petroleum market still has many uncertainties such as world inflation pressure, the war in Ukraine is likely to last. With sanctions and countermeasures, oil prices are still likely to rise.
In that context, the Government needs to have flexible and timely solutions in regulating the prices of strategic commodities to support businesses and people. According to him, excise tax and value added tax on gasoline are two taxes that can be considered to be reduced in the short term to cool down gasoline prices.
"Petroleum is an essential commodity and an important strategic commodity, but now gasoline is subject to 10% of the excise tax like cigarettes and alcohol. When the price of petrol rises, it will affect psychology, people's spending, putting great pressure on production and business costs of enterprises and difficult to control inflation...", he told Zing.
National Assembly member Tran Hoang Ngan said that controlling escalating prices is now an urgent task. If Vietnam does not act now, it will pay a heavy price because of inflation.
"The lesson of controlling inflation in 2011 must be reviewed and applied," Mr. Ngan shared with Zing in the lobby of the National Assembly. He emphasized that Vietnam is facing a huge inflation challenge, which has not been encountered for many years.
At the regular Government press conference on the afternoon of June 4, Mr. Do Thang Hai, Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade, said that there are 3 solutions in the coming time to control the increase in gasoline prices, which is to use the stabilizing fund tool in a reasonable way. effective; adjustment of taxes and fees in the petrol and oil structure; Proposing security solutions, supporting people, the poor, policy households, supporting businesses...
