In April, HCMC's economy had some more positive signals. Despite many difficulties, the research agency still forecasts that the city's growth may reach 16% in the third quarter, but it is difficult for the whole year to reach the target of 8%.
8% growth target is not feasible
According to the Ho Chi Minh City Bureau of Statistics, in April, the city's economic indicators had some positive signs, the total retail sales of consumer goods and services in April was estimated to increase by 12.2% compared to April. last month; increased by 6.2% compared to April 2022. If cumulative for the first 4 months of the year, this index increased by 5% over the same period.
Meanwhile, the index of industrial production (IIP) in April 2023 is estimated to increase by 3% from the previous month and by 8.1% over the same period.
However, the situation of registration of business establishment in the country in the past 4 months shows that city enterprises have difficulty in capital. Specifically, from January 1 to April 20, the city has licensed more than 14,700 businesses with registered capital of more than 144,500 billion VND, an increase of 9.6% in license but a decrease of 24.8% in capital compared to that of April. same period.
Total foreign direct investment (FDI) capital into the city in the first four months of the year was US$979.6 million, down 23.4% over the same period.
In the update report on the socio-economic situation in April and the first 4 months of the year, the Ho Chi Minh City government acknowledged that industries and commerce have prospered, especially tourism and passenger transport. higher. However, the number of newly established enterprises decreased in terms of capital, the domestic purchasing power recovered slowly, the output export market was affected, and foreign investment in the locality decreased over the same period.
Ho Chi Minh City has set a growth target of 7.5-8% in 2023. With the current context, it is likely that an adverse scenario will happen and the ability to reach 8% will be very difficult. However, the city government has not raised the issue of adjusting the growth target, but focused on implementing solutions to increase the whole year's growth from 7.5%, creating momentum for the following years.
Notably, the Ho Chi Minh City Institute for Development Studies (HIDS) gave a growth scenario in the second quarter of 2023, forecasting the highest point at only 3.27%. In the third quarter, the highest forecast is 16.52%, the lowest is 16.16%; In the fourth quarter, the lowest was 10.13% and the highest was 12.14%. From the high growth rate in the following quarters, the whole year growth rate will reach 7.5%.
Thus, HIDS is expecting the city to have a breakthrough growth in the last two quarters of the year, reviving the full-year growth index.
Need to re-evaluate policies, calculate investment efficiency
To achieve the above growth results, the locality will take advantage of the favorable macro environment from the second quarter of 2023; accelerate disbursement of public investment and focus on infrastructure development; remove obstacles in administrative procedures for projects, especially real estate projects; stimulate domestic consumption and export; efficient execution of duties...
Vice Chairman of Ho Chi Minh City Business Association, Mr. Nguyen Phuoc Hung assessed, the business community still maintains the belief that business activities will be stable and prosper in the last months of the year. Currently, the enterprise is restructuring its apparatus, saving costs to try to overcome this period.
The Ho Chi Minh City Development Research Institute predicts that the city's economy can grow up to 16% in the third quarter of 2023. (Photo: Chi Hung)
According to Mr. Hung, due to the large open economy, the city's GRDP was very clearly affected by the economic recession, many industries and fields had an unexpected decrease in the index. HCMC is trying to solve each problem.
City leaders are asking departments and branches to focus on quickly solving the business's recommendations and problems, if not resolved, they must have clear opinions and answers to businesses, not soak the documents.
Dr. Chu Thanh Tuan, Senior Dean of Accounting and Law Department, RMIT University Vietnam, said that Ho Chi Minh City needs to identify socio-economic development goals in the short, medium and long term, based on on national and international benchmarks. Local leaders need to re-evaluate current policies and mechanisms, focus on key points and calculate investment returns. Any policies or mechanisms that are ineffective or difficult to implement should be eliminated to help the city regain its growth momentum.
"The city can contribute capital to key projects, encourage the free exchange of capital, and remove unnecessary regulations, policies, permits and procedures. A one-stop administrative support mechanism is also in place. used to attract FDI and create conditions for start-ups," he said.
Also according to Dr. Tuan, in the long run, the city should support domestic enterprises to develop products and services with high added value and be able to compete in the international market; attracting foreign investors with prestige, experience and commitment to invest in high-tech fields, contributing to economic and social efficiency.
According to Tran Chung/Vietnamnet.vn
