Lessons from the market over the past decade, along with a series of current influencing factors, the real estate market is entering a period of establishing a new price level. Liquidity shows signs of "resting" if there is only a short phenomenon in some unattractive projects.
10 years the price increased ten times
If we look at real estate prices over the past decade, the main chart form is an upward arrow. The sideways trend, if any, usually only appears for a short time and especially has almost no bearish period.
Mr. Nguyen Quoc Anh, Deputy General Director of Batdongsan.com.vn once pointed out that housing prices in the place of the lowest increase were also about 3 times higher than in 2011. Even an earlier report of a data research unit. This data also shows that the price of central houses in Ho Chi Minh City has even increased by 21 times after only 16 years.
“This trend can be clearly seen through the fact that real estate prices in the area around Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi always have an increase of over 10% during the period 2018-2020,” said Mr. Quoc Anh.
According to Mr. Le Hoang Chau, Chairman of Ho Chi Minh City Real Estate Association (HoREA), the first reason is due to the supply-demand mismatch, leading to the market "very short of project supply, very short of housing supply. live". According to him, in previous years, about 30,000 newly built houses were offered for sale every year, but in recent years that number has decreased to 16,000 units/year.
Problems with legal procedures are a big reason for this bottleneck. As reflected by many real estate businesses, many projects, despite being capable of implementation, still have to suffer "sleeping" for many years because of the overlap between the Land Law and the Construction Law, cumbersome administrative procedures. The planning and management stages are not clear...
While the supply is scarce, according to Mr. Neil MacGregor, General Director of Savills Vietnam, the domestic housing market is witnessing a huge demand because of the rapid urbanization and golden population. In particular, the shortage of housing demand every year is accumulating, causing pressure on real estate to increase over time.
That is why, Mr. Nguyen Thanh Nhan, director of a company specializing in exploiting and analyzing economic data, said that the sign of liquidity leveling - as some are saying - is in fact just a trend. short-term direction in some segments, projects are less attractive, investors lack reputation.
“This is a time when many people are considering investment plans. Homebuyers will give priority to projects with good legal status, guaranteed progress, and reputable investors. This is a segment that is always vibrant and has good liquidity,” Nhan said.
The market entered a new cycle
Talking about real estate in the coming time, according to experts, the market will be more and more exciting and the price trend will be mainly. According to Mr. Nguyen Van Dinh, Chairman of the Vietnam Real Estate Brokers Association, this comes from the most fundamental and profound cause of the market, which is "real estate projects are almost frozen, not approved". Although businesses have repeatedly petitioned, the situation of contradictions and overlaps in regulations still needs many years to be resolved.
Another big pressure that the market is facing is the continuously increasing price of construction materials. The biggest increase is the price of steel - the input factor is considered as the "bread" of real estate as well as many other industries. Only in the first few months of the year, steel depending on type had 6-7 price increases with a galloping increase of several million dong/ton. In addition to steel, a lot of related construction materials are also increasing rapidly.
Regarding economic problems, Dr. Su Ngoc Khuong - Senior Director of Savills Vietnam said that, when inflation is on an upward trend, financial resources to invest in real estate are considered a solution to help preserve property values and at the same time avoid instability. in other investment channels.
In addition, the reality for many years also shows that real estate is always a channel that is popular with investors because of its safety and high profitability, especially in Vietnam - where the market is still in the accumulation phase with high demand. There is a great demand for housing for families and children.
In addition to the economic perspective, for the people, owning a house and land is also the mentality of keeping assets "passed down" in many generations of Vietnamese people. This mentality is actually still appearing more and more in families in recent years.
From a macro perspective, DKRA Vietnam Chairman and CEO Pham Lam said that the Government has now issued the largest-scale economic stimulus packages in history, creating an impact on all economic sectors in the country. That includes real estate. As for real estate, the disbursement of public investment, especially the capital for the transport infrastructure system, is forecasted to be a great stimulus for the real estate market. "Where transport infrastructure is developed, it will always lead to the development of the real estate market," said Mr. Lam.
In general, Mr. Nguyen Thanh Nhan said, the real estate market is converging many factors to increase heat in the coming time. Therefore, the price level is also tending to form a new ground.
However, in the long term, according to him, important bottlenecks need to be removed, especially legal procedures to deal with supply and credit support for businesses and people to buy houses. In particular, real estate needs to be properly evaluated for its important role, as one of the lifeblood and locomotive of the economy with influence on dozens of industries, in order to have appropriate root policies.
According to Mai Nguyen/Vietnamnet.vn
