(Construction) - Forecast of consumption and export volume of the cement industry in 2022 tends to decrease. Set requirements to promote sustainable development solutions, balance supply and demand, stabilize market prices to ensure basic construction demand in 2023.
Cement export output in the first 10 months of 2022 decreased compared to the same period in 2021 (Illustration image: Internet).
Export volume tends to decrease
According to statistics in the first 10 months of 2022 (with comparison with the same period in 2021) from the Ministry of Construction, the total production output of the whole cement industry reached 65.67 million tons, of which Vietnam Cement Corporation Nam (Vicem) produced 20.53 million tons. Total consumption volume reached 78.27 million tons (equal to 90% of the same period in 2021). In which: Domestic consumption reached about 52 million tons (up 5%). Particularly Vicem consumed about 17.8 million tons (up 9%).
Export output reached about 26.36 million tons (down about 30%), including: clinker 12.7 million tons (equivalent to 52% over the same period in 2021), cement 13.65 million tons, (increasing again). 2% compared to 2021).
According to the Department of Building Materials (Ministry of Construction), reviewing the consumption market share, the selling price of cement in the regions and the export price found that there was a fluctuation from 1.3 million VND/ton to about 1.9 million VND. VND/ton depending on the type, specifically: In the North, (accounting for about 36% of total national consumption) the retail price ranges from 1.3 million VND/ton to 1.72 million VND/ton. ton.
For the Central and Central Highlands (accounting for 28% of total consumption), the price increased slightly from 1.39 million VND/ton to 1.98 million VND/ton. While the retail price is from 1.4 million dong/ton to 1.92 million dong/ton, it belongs to the southern market share (accounting for 36% of total consumption). The export value is estimated at 1.20 billion USD, the average export price of cement is about 48 USD/ton, the average clinker price is about 41 USD/ton.
According to the Ministry of Construction, over the past time, many directive solutions have been implemented by the Ministry in coordination with the Vietnam Cement Association to balance and stabilize the domestic cement market. Apply scientific and technical advances, promote design capacity, reduce production costs to reduce product costs.
In addition, promoting the implementation of technology applications such as the use of waste heat in cement plants to produce electricity. It is this partial self-sufficiency in electricity production that helps to mitigate the impact of power shortages.
Or projects using waste sources of industries (such as ash, slag, gypsum of thermal power plants; chemicals; domestic waste) to make raw materials and fuel for the Cement industry, in order to save production costs, improve investment efficiency and protect the environment.
The Ministry of Construction has also directed the Vietnam Cement Industry Corporation to coordinate with joint venture units to carefully calculate the demand for cement consumption in the central, southern and northern mountainous provinces to announce rationally transporting cement and clinker to meet consumption demand, especially in the peak months of the construction industry.
On the basis of consumption volume in the first 10 months of the year, the Department of Building Materials made a judgment that the output of the whole year 2022 tends to decrease compared to 2021. Specifically: Total output of cement and clinker consumed for the whole year 2022 will be about 94 million tons (decreased by about 10%). In which, domestic consumption of cement is about 63 million tons (equal to 2021). Export of cement and clinker products is about 31 million tons (down 30%) and total export value is estimated at 1.45 billion USD (down about 30%).
Continue to balance and stabilize market prices
It is forecasted that in 2023, with the world situation complicated by the epidemic and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, it is possible that some countries will experience crisis and economic recession. This will have a significant impact on the domestic economy and affect the market for Vietnam's construction material products, especially the cement export sector.
However, over the past time, the Government has had many solutions to accelerate disbursement of public investment capital, implement investment projects to build technical infrastructure, traffic, irrigation, along with signs of gradual recovery of the economy. The real estate market brings many bright and positive points to the cement consumption market. The Department of Building Materials is expected to calculate that the demand for cement consumption of the whole industry in 2023 will be about 100-105 million tons (expected to increase by 7-10% compared to 2022); domestic consumption about 60-65 million tons and export about 35-40 million tons.
With this consumption and export volume, with 86 cement production lines across the country (with a total capacity of 108.54 million tons) it will completely meet the demand for 2023 (including the domestic market). and export).
In the coming year 2023, many solutions to stabilize the market have also been proposed by the Ministry of Construction, specifically: The Ministry of Construction will continue to apply science and technology to achieve and exceed designed capacity and reduce costs. production cost, product cost reduction. At the same time, the utilization of industrial waste as raw materials and input fuel for cement production is further promoted; combine research and development of sulphate-resistant cements to serve the needs of coastal and island projects and works.
Continue to promote solutions to balance and stabilize prices for the cement market in 2023 (Artwork).
The Ministry of Construction recommends that businesses should grasp the world cement market to promptly adjust production activities, increase or decrease supply to keep selling prices stable; especially have a long-term strategy on production and business activities. In addition, the Government will also have appropriate policies to adjust the selling prices of key commodities (such as electricity, coal, gasoline, and oil) that are inputs to the cement industry.
In the coming time, the whole Cement industry will strive to reduce production and circulation costs to reduce selling prices, stabilize and balance supply and demand and curb price growth in 2023. Committed to meeting enough consumption demand market and stabilize prices at a reasonable level.
Ha Khanh
